Leveraging Your Vote: Your Vote as Currency
Have you ever looked at your choices in a November General Election and found yourself holding your nose as you voted for the lesser of two evils? This is why the Primary is so important. Imagine how great it would be if your choice this November was between good and better! Is it possible that you can help to make that happen? Yes, by considering your vote as currency with an expiration date. If you use your vote then every election in which you cast a vote is like an investment in your future and your community’s future.
Your research and your vote hold the greatest value for local contests such as mayor, supervisor, judge, sheriff, etc. Living in my small county of San Benito I have had candidates knock on my door as they’re out stumping for votes. I have engaged them, listening and asking questions. I have also found it necessary to phone candidates for specific details about their position on issues that are important to me. If you call a candidate for U.S. Senator you may reach a campaign volunteer, or be forced to leave a message. But if you call a candidate for district supervisor, or district attorney, and you’re in Nevada County, the candidate will likely answer and be grateful that you took the time to call.
Now let’s look at the 2022 General Election to better understand the impact of your vote on the outcome. An important concept, especially for Primary contests at the county level, is what I call “margin of elimination.” In a Primary if one candidate receives over 50% then the contest is over. That contest will not appear on the ballot again in November. The margin of elimination is the number or percentage of votes for one candidate above 50%. If no candidate receives over 50% then the top two candidates will continue to November, so the margin of elimination is the difference between second and third places.
The total number of registered voters in California in 2022 was 21,940,274. Of these, 10,933,018, or 49.8%, cast votes for Governor. In Nevada County we had 81,891 registered voters of which 50,737, or 62.0%, cast votes for Governor. At the state level the candidate totals were as follows:
Dahle: 4,462,914
Newsom: 6,470,104
Winning margin: 2,007,190
But at the county level, Nevada County was much closer:
Dahle: 24,082
Newsom: 26,655
Winning margin: 2,573
Now consider how your vote might have impacted the above numbers, assuming that you didn’t vote (which is hopefully not the case). At the state level your vote could have accounted for 0.00001% of the total votes, or 0.00005% of the total margin of victory. But at the county level your vote would have accounted for 0.002% of the total votes, or 0.039% of the margin of victory. Therefore, your vote, had the contest been a local race only such as sheriff or district attorney, would have been 200 times more impactful relative to total number of votes, or 780 times more impactful relative to the margin of victory. Your vote has roughly 500 times more impact on county contests than on statewide contests.
Taking the idea of economics to the Primary level we turn to the 2022 District 3 Supervisor contest. District 3 had 13,160 registered voters, of which 5,914 cast a vote for supervisor. Note the candidates and their vote totals (from the Nevada County Elections website):
Patti Spencer: 1,841
Lisa Swarthout: 2,864
Valentina Masterz: 1,209
This contest is interesting because Patti Spencer made the cut over Valentina Masterz by a margin of 632 votes. However, had Lisa Swarthout garnered 187 additional votes she would have clinched her victory with no need to continue to November. Thus, the margin of elimination is a mere 187 votes.
Moving on to the General election, 7,523 votes were cast for supervisor:
Patti Spencer: 2,892
Lisa Swarthout: 4,631
Margin of victory: 1,739
Using the same considerations here that we used for local vs. state voter impact we find that your vote would have amounted to, in the Primary, 0.017% of the total votes cast, or 0.54% of the margin of elimination. In the November General Election your vote would have amounted to 0.013% of total votes, or 0.058% of the margin of victory. That makes your vote 30% more significant in the Primary than in the General Election, relative to total votes, and 9.3 times more significant with respect to margin of victory. Want to skip the Primary and wait for the General Election? Pay full price, please!
Let’s consider one other perspective on the value of your voting “currency.” In District 3 in November we had 6,778 people registered who did NOT vote. Given the margin of victory of 1,739 votes you could say that 1,739 voters decided the winner for 6,778 who did not participate. Whether or not you like the outcome, the conclusion is that 1,739 voters decided for themselves and for the others who did not vote. That’s leverage of nearly 4:1, which is very powerful. If you don’t vote, the leverage works against you. When you vote, you are the leverage.
Be sure that you receive fair value for your vote. When you get cash from a bank or ATM, don’t you count the cash before you go home? You expect the amount in your hand to be precisely the amount that was withdrawn from your account. You want to trust the bank, but necessity requires that you verify. If you asked for $250 would you accept only $239.50, because it’s “close enough”? No, you expect the accounting to be precise. Expect the same with your vote. Call, read, or ask around to make sure that the candidates or ballot measures are what you think they are. The entire election system must be precise.
Your vote is the only currency you have with which to maintain your freedom. Your freedom is for sale in EVERY election (including primaries). Do you believe that no one listens? Call the candidates for city council, for school board, for district supervisor. I think you’ll find you have their ear. If not, you have additional information about how to direct your vote. Vote in the Primary (March 5 is just around the corner!) to maximize your impact. Vote, and be heard. Vote using “currency” that you didn’t know you had!
Read Mr. Umfleet’s previous article in this series.
Numbers used for calculations are taken from CA SOS and Nevada County elections.